Juneau, Alaska

(907) 699-6788 ed.king@kingecon.com

Projections for Fiscal Year 2021

updated 5/13/20

Recession Risk

>99%

State Oil Revenues

$0.97 billion

Change in Net Position

$1.6 bilion surplus

Accessible Savings (End of Year)

$15.1 billion

About Us

We are a nonpartisan economics firm that specializes in Alaska's economy. We provide impartial information on the health of the economy for use by business owners and government officials. Our goal is to inform rather than influence business and policy decisions. Therefore, all of our work products are based on data, not desires. We are not beholden to any business, industry, association, or political party.

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Alaska by the Numbers – May 2020

Here is your monthly round-up of what happened to Alaska’s economy and financial situation. The unemployment rate hit a record high The Department of Labor data for April gives us the first official glimpse at just how bad the pandemic hit our economy. It shows a seasonally adjusted rate of […]

The False Narrative About ERA Draws

If you’ve been watching the finance committees work this session, you’ve almost certainly heard an argument about not taking “excess” draws out of the earning reserve account (ERA). There is some truth to the assertion. But, there’s a larger false narrative afoot. Today, I want to take a moment to […]

Pricing ANS: Part 3 – ANS Assessments

Now that we’ve discussed the physical market and the futures market, we can finally turn to understanding how Alaska’s oil get’s priced. It boils down to a combination of factors that deal with each of these markets and their dynamics. Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude doesn’t have a spot market […]

Pricing ANS: Part 2 – Futures Markets

In part 1 of this series, I laid out who the buyers, sellers, and shippers of Alaska North Slope (ANS) oil are. Those players make up the physical market, in which market fundamentals – the laws of supply and demand – determine prices. But, there is another market that buys […]

Pricing ANS: Part 1 – Physical Market Dynamics

After all the craziness of negative prices last month, a reader asked if I would write an article explaining how pricing Alaska’s crude oil works. That seems like a good idea, although I can’t do it in one digestible piece. So, the plan is to write a three-part series that […]

Alaska By The Numbers – April 2020

Most Alaskans spent a lot more time at home in April than they usually would. Many businesses were closed and a significant share of the labor force worked from home. The Coronavirus Pandemic generally trended downward during the month of April, ultimately leading to some restrictions getting lifted by the […]

Alaska’s Finances Aren’t as Bad as You Think

If you happen across some information about Alaska’s current financial situation, you probably get the impression that we are in dire straights. When oil prices crashed 77% in late 2014, the State’s oil revenues collapsed – leaving a gaping hole in the budget. By all accounts, we’ve been deficit spending […]

What Happened to Oil and what Happens Next?

A barrel of Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude oil was selling for $22.47 at the time this article was written. That’s down 67% from the beginning of the year. In terms of the state’s royalty oil, that price swing represents a reduction of almost $3 million per day. For the […]

The Death of the Permanent Fund Dividend

Alaska is blessed with natural beauty and natural resources. In many ways, our State is the envy of governments around the world. People from outside spend thousands of dollars to enjoy what we see every day. Meanwhile, we pay no income or sales tax, plus receive a dividend check each […]

Alaska by the Numbers – March 2020

March was a crazy month. It’s almost unbelievable how quickly the world changed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Here are some quick highlights about how Alaska’s finances and economy were impacted by the pandemic. The Stock Market Collapsed March began with the Dow at 26,703. By the end of […]