Juneau, Alaska

(907) 699-6788 ed.king@kingecon.com
<p>Here’s the big news that broke last month, and how it impacts Alaska’s economy. GMT1 Production Started Ahead of Schedule ConocoPhillips announced that they started flowing oil from the Greater Moose’s Tooth Unit on October 5th. This is a full two months ahead of schedule. While initial flows are only […]</p>
<p>If you check your bank account on Thursday, you should receive your $1,600 PFD. I hope you enjoy it! But if you read these pages, you probably know that deposit is smaller than it would have been if paid according to the statutory formula. I previously estimated the “right” number […]</p>
<p>Each Monday, I update my production and oil price models with the newest data from the week before. Then, I run a new set of simulations and post the results here and here respectively. Those numbers become inputs into a projection of State revenues. I also track changes in jobs, […]</p>

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Latest News

What’s Up with that 21%?

This week’s article is inspired by a question that came up during the Bicameral Working Group on the PFD hearing a few days ago. It centers on a portion of the PFD calculation. Here’s the gist: Under the current law, the sum of the earnings over the last five years […]

The 3 Opposing Views of the PFD

The legislature is currently debating the future of Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD). The operating budget has passed, without a PFD. A separate appropriation bill for the PFD has failed on the Senate floor. The House minority tried to stuff the PFD into the capital budget, but didn’t have the […]

Sorry, the Cavalry Is Not Coming

You have undoubtedly heard about the renaissance that is just starting on Alaska’s North Slope. It’s a very exciting time with good news breaking every week. All that excitement may tempt you to think that the North Slope oil cavalry is on the way to help us win our budget […]

Alaska North Slope 10-Year Oil Production Forecast

I gave you my projections of how oil production on the North Slope will look next fiscal year. But, the question most people really have is “what happens after that?” We’ve all heard about some major projects that are coming. So, what will that mean for the amount of oil […]

The Fuzzy Logic of Columnists Writing about the Earnings Reserve

“How are you going to pay for all that?” a reporter asks Governor-elect Dunleavy. “$19 billion in the ERA. That’s how” he quips. Since well before the press conference following the election, reporters, journalist, columnists, bloggers, opinion havers, and fiction writers have been questioning how the promises made on the […]

A First Look at FY20 Oil Production

The Alaska Department of Natural Resources should be done with its production forecast. Over the next few weeks, The Department of Revenue will insert that forecast into their revenue model and discuss things with treasury, the APFC, and OMB. Ultimately, they will publish the Revenue Sources Book along with the […]

What Will GMT1 Produce For The State Budget?

ConocoPhillips Alaska did a great job of getting the first Greater Moose’s Tooth (GMT1) development into production, ahead of schedule and under budget. We are all excited to have the new oil flowing. It signals the beginning of another renaissance for the North Slope. But, the oil is coming from […]

Alaska by the Numbers – November Edition

Here’s the big news that broke last month, and how it impacts Alaska’s economy. GMT1 Production Started Ahead of Schedule ConocoPhillips announced that they started flowing oil from the Greater Moose’s Tooth Unit on October 5th. This is a full two months ahead of schedule. While initial flows are only […]

Exploring Alaska’s Budget: Part 5 – FY20 Budget Issues

We’ve looked at Alaska’s budget for the past month. In part 1, we learned some terminology. Then, in part 2, we explored what we buy with all that money. In parts 3 and 4, we analyzed where the budget growth occurred during the high oil price years, and how we […]

Exploring Alaska’s Budget: Part 4 – What Did We Cut?

Now that we’ve explored how the budget increased when oil prices were high, let’s take a look at what got cut when oil prices crashed. Budget Cuts The time period of interest for this article is from the highest budget year (2013) to the most recent budget (2019). In this […]