We are a nonpartisan economics firm that specializes in Alaska's economy. We provide impartial information on the health of the economy for use by business owners and government officials. Our goal is to inform rather than influence business and policy decisions. Therefore, all of our work products are based on data, not desires. We are not beholden to any business, industry, association, or political party.
Projecting Alaska’s Budget
The Alaska State Legislature will gavel in tomorrow at 1pm. It should be a busy session, but the primary responsibility of the elected officials is to pass a budget. The governor submitted a starting place for them to consider – $4.5 billion of UGF spending. The finance committees will get […]
Why is Alaska’s Population Declining?
The Department of Labor published Alaska’s annual population numbers in January. It shows a reduction of 3,048 people in FY19. That is the third annual loss in population in a row. On a quarterly basis, the available U.S. Census data suggests we’ve been losing population for 12 consecutive quarters […]
What If Those Predictions Came True?
If you haven’t read Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” trilogy, you should. He introduced the world to the idea that although the individuals within a system are unpredictable, the general direction a society is moving can be seen coming like dominos falling. Last post, I offered some of my own psychohistory projections […]
What Will the New Decade Bring for Alaska?
If you were on social media at all last week, you probably got your fill of reflections, resolutions, and predictions. Everyone wants to talk about what happened in 2019 and what 2020 will bring. But, we didn’t just turn the calendar this year – we changed decades. So, just for […]
Alaska By The Numbers – December 2019
Now that the holidays are over, it’s time to turn our attention back to Alaska’s financial problems. Here are some of the highlights of what happened in December 2019. The Governor Released His FY21 Budget Proposal The governor rolled out his proposed FY21 budget on December 11th. To the surprise […]
Alaska by the Numbers – November 2019
November was a month of little change. In general, the markets turned slightly optimistic. That’s good news for Alaska in both the oil and investment side of things. Here’s a recap of where things stand. The Stock Market Gained on Trade Deal Hopes Equity traders saw a break in the […]
Alaska by the Numbers – October 2019
Here is your free monthly update on what’s going on in Alaska’s economy. The Labor Market Keeps Improving According to the Department of Labor numbers released last week, Alaska extended its winning streak to 12 consecutive months of job growth. The jobs count in September 2019 was a total of […]
What Would Direct LNG Exports Mean for Alaska?
Big news came from the Point Thomson Unit (PTU) today. Exxon has entered a Heads of Agreement with Qilak Energy to sell the long-stranded natural gas from the technically challenging reservoir via direct exports. While it is still far too early to say for sure what all this means, I’m […]
Alaska Has an Investment Return Paradox
Over the last five years, Alaska has pivoted from being a Petro-state to a Trust Fund kid. Thanks to years of saving and re-investing a quarter of our oil royalties, we now have over $66 billion in the bank. And, those billions of dollars go to work every day, bringing […]
Like It or Not, Alaska’s Economy is Growing
It was over a year ago that I pointed out that Alaska was on the verge of a recovery. Wages were starting to grow again, and I predicted that jobs would follow suit. When we look at the data today, it’s clear that those predictions came true. Yet, I still […]