What Happened to Oil and what Happens Next?

A barrel of Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude oil was selling for $22.47 at the time this article was written. That’s down 67% from the beginning of the year. In terms of the state’s royalty oil, that price swing represents a reduction of almost $3 million per day. For the producers, it means that they[…][…]

Alaska’s Revenue Outlook

The Department of Revenue puts out a forecast of state revenues each December, which serves as a companion to the budget. The latest numbers are a few months old now, and an update should be released next month. However, the Spring update usually focuses more on adjusting the budget year than the long-term outlook. The[…][…]

Projecting Alaska’s Budget

The Alaska State Legislature will gavel in tomorrow at 1pm. It should be a busy session, but the primary responsibility of the elected officials is to pass a budget. The governor submitted a starting place for them to consider – $4.5 billion of UGF spending. The finance committees will get to work and ultimately pass[…][…]

What Will the New Decade Bring for Alaska?

If you were on social media at all last week, you probably got your fill of reflections, resolutions, and predictions. Everyone wants to talk about what happened in 2019 and what 2020 will bring. But, we didn’t just turn the calendar this year – we changed decades. So, just for fun, here are some predictions[…][…]

Jobs Forecast Challenge: Me vs ISER

On Monday, ISER gave a presentation that suggested the vetoes would cost the economy 4,217 jobs and would send the State whirling back into a recession. I disagree. While it’s ok for us to have different ideas, only one of us will be right. Unfortunately, most people don’t care to find out why our ideas[…][…]

Alaska North Slope 10-Year Oil Production Forecast

I gave you my projections of how oil production on the North Slope will look next fiscal year. But, the question most people really have is “what happens after that?” We’ve all heard about some major projects that are coming. So, what will that mean for the amount of oil flowing down the pipeline? (a[…][…]

A First Look at FY20 Oil Production

The Alaska Department of Natural Resources should be done with its production forecast. Over the next few weeks, The Department of Revenue will insert that forecast into their revenue model and discuss things with treasury, the APFC, and OMB. Ultimately, they will publish the Revenue Sources Book along with the budget in early December. There[…][…]

What Will GMT1 Produce For The State Budget?

ConocoPhillips Alaska did a great job of getting the first Greater Moose’s Tooth (GMT1) development into production, ahead of schedule and under budget. We are all excited to have the new oil flowing. It signals the beginning of another renaissance for the North Slope. But, the oil is coming from non-State land in the NPR-A.[…][…]

The Permanent Fund Forecast Should be Questioned

A few weeks ago, Brad Keithley wrote an article discussing the proposed POMV draw from the Alaska Permanent Fund. If you’re not up to speed on the issue, here’s the short version of the story. The Situation Alaska has about $60 billion sitting in a constitutionally protected account called the Permanent Fund, which is managed[…][…]