What’s Up with that 21%?
This week’s article is inspired by a question that came up during the Bicameral Working Group on the PFD hearing a few days ago. It centers on a portion of the PFD calculation. Here’s the gist: Under the current law, the sum of the earnings over the last five years […]
The 3 Opposing Views of the PFD
The legislature is currently debating the future of Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD). The operating budget has passed, without a PFD. A separate appropriation bill for the PFD has failed on the Senate floor. The House minority tried to stuff the PFD into the capital budget, but didn’t have the […]
The Fuzzy Logic of Columnists Writing about the Earnings Reserve
“How are you going to pay for all that?” a reporter asks Governor-elect Dunleavy. “$19 billion in the ERA. That’s how” he quips. Since well before the press conference following the election, reporters, journalist, columnists, bloggers, opinion havers, and fiction writers have been questioning how the promises made on the […]
Alaska By the Numbers – October Edition
If you check your bank account on Thursday, you should receive your $1,600 PFD. I hope you enjoy it! But if you read these pages, you probably know that deposit is smaller than it would have been if paid according to the statutory formula. I previously estimated the “right” number […]
3 Takeaways from Analyzing the PFD
One of the downsides of working alone, is the inability to bounce ideas off others. There is a lot of information gained from seeing brows furrow, lips curl, and eyes glaze over as you speak. Getting challenged to clarify a point or getting another perspective is tremendously valuable. For that […]
How Important is the PFD to Alaska’s Economy?
In about a week, a total of $1 billion will be deposited into bank accounts across Alaska. Over 600,000 Alaskans will receive $1,600 each to spend however they choose. You will see just about every business in Alaska competing to capture a share of that bump in income. Clearly, the […]
PFD Cuts Were Probably Unnecessary Sacrifices
Alaska has hired some very good people to manage the Permanent Fund, and they are good at their jobs. Every year, the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation (APFC) beats the market benchmark and spins off billions of dollars of investment earnings. Over the last 41 years of managing our money, the […]
Alaska by the Numbers – September Edition
Each Monday, I update my production and oil price models with the newest data from the week before. Then, I run a new set of simulations and post the results here and here respectively. Those numbers become inputs into a projection of State revenues. I also track changes in jobs, […]