Our Economic Indicator Model uses supervised machine learning algorithms to conduct predictive analytics on government supplied data. Those algorithms output our baseline assumptions, which are inputs into a General Economy Model (GEM) of the economy.
The GEM was constructed using our expertise in Alaska’s economic system, applied natural resource economics, state laws, and regional factors. All of these factors establish the relationships between variables, which allow changes in the baseline forecast assumptions to flow through the rest of the economy.
We also compile forecasts from other sources to identify discrepancies between our model outputs and those forecasts. This allows us to understand different assumptions that lead to alternative outcomes.
We then score forecasts that are created by others. Those forecasts are integrated with the model outputs, which move our forecast on a merit-based weighting system.
A similar approach is used for project, regional, and industry specific analysis for clients seeking customized information.
If you’re interested in a customized analysis, please contact us.