While Alaska’s North Slope isn’t pumping oil like it did 30 years ago, the basin is still a major contributor to the West Coast refineries. And the future is looking bright, as a renaissance is under way. With all the excitement around opening ANWR, the potential for the Nanashuk to be the next giant oil field, and all the exploration success in the NPR-A, it’s hard to get a handle on what all this means to the future of Alaska.
If you are looking for data on how much oil has already flowed through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, here you go. The red line is the 12-month moving average to smooth out the seasonal factors.
Short-Term Forecast (as of 10/8/18)
Given what production has done in the past, we can get a pretty good idea of what will happen next. Here is the forecast for the next fiscal year.
Note that the above includes production from 1H NEWS, Moose Pad, Mustang, and GMT1. It also includes the resumed injection of Prudhoe Bay produced NGLs into Kuparuk beginning August 2018.
Long Term Forecast
We are still working on a long-term forecast. In general, we are optimistic about new production coming online over the next decade.
Stay tuned for our long-term Alaska North Slope Oil Production Forecast to be released in January 2019.