While Alaska’s North Slope isn’t pumping oil like it did 30 years ago, the basin is still a major contributor to the West Coast refineries. And the future is looking bright, as a renaissance is under way. With all the excitement around opening ANWR, the potential for the Nanashuk to be the next giant oil field, and all the exploration success in the NPR-A, it’s hard to get a handle on what all this means to the future of Alaska.

Production History

If you are looking for data on how much oil has already flowed through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, here you go. The red line is the 12-month moving average to smooth out the seasonal factors.

Short-Term Forecast (as of 8/15/18)

Given what production has done in the past, we can get a pretty good idea of what will happen next. Here is the forecast for the next fiscal year. Last fiscal year’s production is also shown for comparison.

 Low   Forecast   High 
July-18           415,485
August-18                426,819           438,799           450,931
September-18                435,516           469,337           504,400
October-18                466,671           503,690           541,555
November-18                475,397           514,278           553,630
December-18                481,849           522,955           565,436
January-19                482,563           523,188           564,415
February-19                486,392           528,277           572,242
March-19                502,022           545,983           591,151
April-19                490,795           533,869           578,975
May-19                490,044           533,167           578,194
June-19                470,273           512,364           555,762
FY19                481,270          503,449          526,002

Note that the above includes production from 1H NEWS, Moose Pad, Mustang, and GMT1. It also includes the resumed injection of Prudhoe Bay produced NGLs into Kuparuk beginning August 2018. 

Long Term Forecast

We are still working on a long-term forecast. In general, we are optimistic about new production coming online over the next decade.

Stay tuned for our long-term Alaska North Slope Oil Production Forecast to be released in January 2019.