While Alaska’s North Slope isn’t pumping oil like it did 30 years ago, the basin is still a major contributor to the West Coast refineries. And the future is looking bright, as a renaissance is under way. With all the excitement around opening ANWR, the potential for the Nanashuk to be the next giant oil field, and all the exploration success in the NPR-A, it’s hard to get a handle on what all this means to the future of Alaska.

Production History

If you are looking for data on how much oil has already flowed through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, here you go. The red line is the 12-month moving average to smooth out the seasonal factors.

Short-Term Forecast (as of 10/8/18)

Given what production has done in the past, we can get a pretty good idea of what will happen next. Here is the forecast for the next fiscal year.

 Low   Forecast   High 
July-18                           415,485
August-18                           453,834
September-18                           499,394
October-18                492,462                           525,294           558,940
November-18                505,967                           540,589           576,259
December-18                505,679                           541,111           577,269
January-19                500,288                           534,954           570,736
February-19                499,936                           536,415           573,877
March-19                519,263                           556,253           594,366
April-19                513,117                           549,617           587,693
May-19                508,455                           545,697           583,812
June-19                475,101                           509,362           544,468
FY19                500,849                          517,334          533,873

Note that the above includes production from 1H NEWS, Moose Pad, Mustang, and GMT1. It also includes the resumed injection of Prudhoe Bay produced NGLs into Kuparuk beginning August 2018. 

Long Term Forecast

We are still working on a long-term forecast. In general, we are optimistic about new production coming online over the next decade.

Stay tuned for our long-term Alaska North Slope Oil Production Forecast to be released in January 2019.