Alaska North Slope 10-Year Oil Production Forecast
I gave you my projections of how oil production on the North Slope will look next fiscal year. But, the question most people really have is “what happens after that?” We’ve all heard about some major projects that are coming. So, what will that mean for the amount of oil […]
A First Look at FY20 Oil Production
The Alaska Department of Natural Resources should be done with its production forecast. Over the next few weeks, The Department of Revenue will insert that forecast into their revenue model and discuss things with treasury, the APFC, and OMB. Ultimately, they will publish the Revenue Sources Book along with the […]
What Will GMT1 Produce For The State Budget?
ConocoPhillips Alaska did a great job of getting the first Greater Moose’s Tooth (GMT1) development into production, ahead of schedule and under budget. We are all excited to have the new oil flowing. It signals the beginning of another renaissance for the North Slope. But, the oil is coming from […]
A Silver Lining on Alyeska Layoffs
Earlier this month, Alyeska Pipeline announced that they were going to layoff 130 people, as part of a reorganization effort to cut costs. As much as I hate to see people lose their jobs, there is a silver lining for the rest of us. When the cost of transporting oil […]
Here is How Much Money Oil Companies Make in Alaska
One of the things that I’ve heard over and over again, is that there is a lack of transparency in Alaska’s oil taxes. How do we know if the current tax law is “fair” and “equitable” to all parties when we aren’t allowed to see how much money they are […]
Production is Up. Does that Mean SB21 is Working?
When the 28th legislature narrowly passed SB21 in 2013, I was working as a policy analyst for the Department of Revenue. I still remember the late night committee hearings and the frantic preparation of fiscal notes. At the end of the day, the bill was named the “More Alaska Production” […]
Are ConocoPhillips Profits Really Highest in Alaska?
On July 31st, 2018, ConocoPhillips released its second quarter 2018 10-Q, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A couple weeks later, the Legislative Research group released a table which showed the production levels and net income that the ConocoPhillips filing reported. The table also included a […]
Did SB21 Cause Our Budget Problems?
I recently saw a social media post that said something to the effect of “the reason the State is broke is because of the oil tax giveaway back in 2013.” At the same time, I see pro-industry ads talking about how the same tax reform has led to an increase […]
Fiscal Year 2018 Closing Numbers
Alaska’s fiscal year ends tomorrow, June 30th. While official numbers won’t be posted for several months, preliminary data is already available. Here’s what it looks like. Oil Price Alaska North Slope Crude oil ended up being a year of upward trending prices. While the price of oil ended the fiscal […]
The Legislature Should Not Rely on DOR’s Oil Price Forecast
Each October, the Alaska Department of Revenue (DOR) holds an oil price forecasting session. They gather about 30 people in a room in Anchorage, talk to them about what’s going on in the oil markets, and eventually ask them to write down what they think is going to happen to […]