Juneau, Alaska

(907) 699-6788 ed.king@kingecon.com

Government

Alaska Has an Investment Return Paradox

Over the last five years, Alaska has pivoted from being a Petro-state to a Trust Fund kid. Thanks to years of saving and re-investing a quarter of our oil royalties, we now have over $66 billion in the bank. And, those billions of dollars go to work every day, bringing […]

Fighting Over Invisible Milk

In the event you have been hiking the Brooks Range for the last six months, let me briefly get you up to speed. We have a fairly serious battle going on in Alaska right now. By way of an oil price crash a few years ago, we’ve burned through all […]

Sorry, the Cavalry Is Not Coming

You have undoubtedly heard about the renaissance that is just starting on Alaska’s North Slope. It’s a very exciting time with good news breaking every week. All that excitement may tempt you to think that the North Slope oil cavalry is on the way to help us win our budget […]

Alaska North Slope 10-Year Oil Production Forecast

I gave you my projections of how oil production on the North Slope will look next fiscal year. But, the question most people really have is “what happens after that?” We’ve all heard about some major projects that are coming. So, what will that mean for the amount of oil […]

The Fuzzy Logic of Columnists Writing about the Earnings Reserve

“How are you going to pay for all that?” a reporter asks Governor-elect Dunleavy. “$19 billion in the ERA. That’s how” he quips. Since well before the press conference following the election, reporters, journalist, columnists, bloggers, opinion havers, and fiction writers have been questioning how the promises made on the […]

A First Look at FY20 Oil Production

The Alaska Department of Natural Resources should be done with its production forecast. Over the next few weeks, The Department of Revenue will insert that forecast into their revenue model and discuss things with treasury, the APFC, and OMB. Ultimately, they will publish the Revenue Sources Book along with the […]

What Will GMT1 Produce For The State Budget?

ConocoPhillips Alaska did a great job of getting the first Greater Moose’s Tooth (GMT1) development into production, ahead of schedule and under budget. We are all excited to have the new oil flowing. It signals the beginning of another renaissance for the North Slope. But, the oil is coming from […]

Exploring Alaska’s Budget: Part 5 – FY20 Budget Issues

We’ve looked at Alaska’s budget for the past month. In part 1, we learned some terminology. Then, in part 2, we explored what we buy with all that money. In parts 3 and 4, we analyzed where the budget growth occurred during the high oil price years, and how we […]

Exploring Alaska’s Budget: Part 4 – What Did We Cut?

Now that we’ve explored how the budget increased when oil prices were high, let’s take a look at what got cut when oil prices crashed. Budget Cuts The time period of interest for this article is from the highest budget year (2013) to the most recent budget (2019). In this […]

Exploring Alaska’s Budget: Part 3 – Tracking Down Our Budget Growth

The story I hear most often is that when oil prices topped $100 a barrel, the Legislature went on a shopping spree. That sounds like a plausible story, but let’s check the data just to be sure. Budget Growth Here is a plot of the budget over time, according to […]