Alaska’s Revenue Outlook
The Department of Revenue puts out a forecast of state revenues each December, which serves as a companion to the budget. The latest numbers are a few months old now, and an update should be released next month. However, the Spring update usually focuses more on adjusting the budget year […]
Projecting Alaska’s Budget
The Alaska State Legislature will gavel in tomorrow at 1pm. It should be a busy session, but the primary responsibility of the elected officials is to pass a budget. The governor submitted a starting place for them to consider – $4.5 billion of UGF spending. The finance committees will get […]
What If Those Predictions Came True?
If you haven’t read Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” trilogy, you should. He introduced the world to the idea that although the individuals within a system are unpredictable, the general direction a society is moving can be seen coming like dominos falling. Last post, I offered some of my own psychohistory projections […]
What Will the New Decade Bring for Alaska?
If you were on social media at all last week, you probably got your fill of reflections, resolutions, and predictions. Everyone wants to talk about what happened in 2019 and what 2020 will bring. But, we didn’t just turn the calendar this year – we changed decades. So, just for […]
Jobs Forecast Challenge: Me vs ISER
On Monday, ISER gave a presentation that suggested the vetoes would cost the economy 4,217 jobs and would send the State whirling back into a recession. I disagree. While it’s ok for us to have different ideas, only one of us will be right. Unfortunately, most people don’t care to […]
A Closer Look at Alaska’s Labor Force
It is the population of an economy that provides the supply of labor and the demand for goods. If the population is declining, you can make a safe bet that the economy isn’t doing well. Many Alaskan’s have probably heard by now that Alaska’s population declined in 2017. If you […]
The Legislature Should Not Rely on DOR’s Oil Price Forecast
Each October, the Alaska Department of Revenue (DOR) holds an oil price forecasting session. They gather about 30 people in a room in Anchorage, talk to them about what’s going on in the oil markets, and eventually ask them to write down what they think is going to happen to […]
The Permanent Fund Forecast Should be Questioned
A few weeks ago, Brad Keithley wrote an article discussing the proposed POMV draw from the Alaska Permanent Fund. If you’re not up to speed on the issue, here’s the short version of the story. The Situation Alaska has about $60 billion sitting in a constitutionally protected account called the […]